Dec 11, 2008
Q&A
Q&A: Prediction in Valuations? 
Do valuation measures such as price/earnings or price/dividend ratios help predict future returns? Are they telling us anything now?

EFF/KRF: Yes, but not with lots of confidence. The market return tends to be lower when aggregate ratios like E/P and D/P are low, and vice versa. The economic logic is based on the same discount rate effect we use to explain the higher expected return on value stocks. The empirical evidence leans toward a positive relation between aggregate fundamental to price ratios and future market returns, but there is lots of uncertainty about the forecast.

 
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ABOUT FAMA AND FRENCH
Eugene F. Fama
The Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Kenneth R. French
The Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College
This information is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily Dimensional Fund Advisors and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors of the general partner of, and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.