Jan 26, 2018
Essays
Bayes Rule Spreadsheet 

by Kenneth R. French

 

Bayes rule is a way to update your model of the world when you have new information. Suppose we are interested in assessing the probability that a specific hypothesis is true. We start with an initial assessment, called our prior, which is based on all the data we have observed, books we have read, and our other life experiences. This post explains how we should update our initial assessment when we observe new data.

Download PDF

Download Spreadsheet

 
FAMA AND FRENCH ON OTHER TOPICS
NewestQuestions & AnswersEssaysInteresting LinksVideos
CATEGORIES: Economic Policy (4), Academics (7), Investments (3), Market Efficiency (5), Financial Markets (2), Diversification (1), Behavioral Finance (1), Hedge Funds (2)
ABOUT FAMA AND FRENCH
Eugene F. Fama
The Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Kenneth R. French
The Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College
This information is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any security for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily Dimensional Fund Advisors and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors of the general partner of, and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.